Fed's Waller (voter) says gotten persistently better and stronger job reports; see no reason to ever be in a scarce reserves regime

AI:

  • AI may be affecting financial conditions.
  • If AI were to pop or pull back would see pretty big changes in financial conditions.

Balance Sheet:

  • If can figure out way that banks don't need as much reserves, no problem with shrinking balance sheet accordingly.
  • Lot of dispute how much you can shrink balance sheet on reserve demand alone.
  • Task force will think about how seriously  can think about reducing balance sheet.
  • Have a hard time seeing where balance sheet at current size is causing problems.

Forward Guidance:

  • Now is not the time to use forward guidance.
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