Fitch says the Brent oil price could average USD120/bbl in 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for six months, or USD 100/bbl if closed for three months

Fitch's outlook on Brent oil prices highlights the significant impact geopolitical tensions can have on supply dynamics. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a notable price spike, potentially influencing inflation and monetary policy across major economies, particularly the U.S. and Europe. This scenario emphasizes the sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical risks and could reignite inflation concerns in related currencies and commodities.