Fitch says weak Chinese domestic demand will limit growth to 4.1% in 2026

• "China’s economic data point to a continued two-speed economy in 2026, with strong external demand balanced against subdued domestic demand".
• "We believe domestic demand will remain constrained by sluggish consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, and investment headwinds that have broadened beyond the property-sector correction and are amplified by the local-government debt overhang."
• "Policy efforts to reignite investment and shift towards greater consumption are likely to intensify, but on an incremental basis, providing modest support to economic activity."

Fitch's forecast for China's growth at 4.1% in 2026 highlights the significant impact of weak domestic demand on the economy, suggesting a dichotomy between strong external and weak internal conditions. This scenario implies a cautious outlook for consumer spending and investment, potentially influencing global markets, particularly commodities and currencies linked to Chinese demand. The anticipated policy efforts to boost consumption may provide muted support, indicating that any recovery in growth could be slow and iterative.