France, Toluna-Harris poll: Le Pen would lead in Presidential run-off election

Opinion polling on French presidential run-offs has a well-established transmission channel into markets: the OAT-Bund spread, which has historically widened whenever Le Pen's prospects looked credible and retraced when they faded, making the 10-year basis the cleanest expression of French political risk. Single polls, especially from one house, have rarely been the trigger on their own; the pattern in past episodes is that spreads move on poll momentum and corroboration across surveys rather than on any one reading, and that moves far from an election date tend to mean-revert absent a concrete catalyst. The relevant distinction here is between headline voting intention and the institutional questions that actually drive the risk premium: parliamentary arithmetic, the fiscal trajectory, and the relationship with Brussels, all of which matter more for the spread than the candidate's name. Prior form is that Le Pen has led or featured strongly in polling at various points without converting, so the market has learned to discount early readings, though the discount has shrunk when her platform's fiscal and European implications looked more actionable. Worth watching are follow-up polls from other houses, any movement in the OAT-Bund basis and French bank names, and the electoral calendar relative to the field of rival candidates.