French Budget Balance (Jul) -145.9B (Prev. -106.8B)

What has historically mattered for the OAT-Bund spread is not these interim prints but the autumn budget cycle: the deficit trajectory relative to the government's own targets, the stability programme submitted to Brussels, and any signal of slippage against the excessive deficit procedure framework. Episodes of French fiscal stress have tended to play out through rating agency commentary, commission assessments, and the parliamentary arithmetic around the finance bill rather than through single data releases. The tells worth tracking are the finance ministry's updated deficit forecasts, the October budget presentation, and Moody's and S&P review dates for the sovereign. As a standalone print this is context, not a catalyst.