German government raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% (prev. 0.5%) in April; also lifts 2027 view to 1.1% (prev. 0.9%) and sees 0.6% growth in 2028

Official forecast revisions from Berlin are published on a regular cycle and tend to matter less as prediction than as the fiscal anchor they become: the growth and inflation projections feed directly into the budget arithmetic, the debt brake calculus and the tax revenue estimates that govern how much room the finance ministry has to spend. Revisions of this size, roughly doubling the growth view, have historically accompanied a genuine change in the fiscal stance, and the tell is whether the upgrade is built on announced spending and investment measures or on assumptions about external demand that the government does not control. The distinction worth drawing is between the growth revision and the inflation path above the ECB target running alongside it: the former argues for stronger Bund supply to fund the impulse, the latter constrains how the Governing Council's hawks read the domestic backdrop even though German forecasts do not set euro-area policy. Comparable episodes have tended to play out first through the Bund curve and the 10-year supply premium, with the euro's response contingent on whether peers upgrade in sympathy. What is worth watching next is the accompanying financing plan and any update to the issuance calendar, since that is where the forecast turns into duration.