Germany's Council of Economic Experts says forecasts are expected to rise significantly

Germany's Council of Economic Experts says forecasts are expected to rise significantly.

The Council of Economic Experts is a standing advisory body that publishes forecasts twice a year, and its pre-released commentary has historically foreshadowed the formal report rather than moved markets on its own. A significant upward revision from this body has in past cycles been associated with shifts in the fiscal stance, since the council's projections incorporate announced government spending; episodes where German growth forecasts were revised materially higher on the back of looser fiscal policy have tended to steepen the long end of the Bund curve and widen the spread between Bunds and lower-rated eurozone peripherals, via the supply channel rather than any growth signal alone. The distinction that matters is whether the upgrade reflects domestic demand driven by public expenditure or an external impulse, since the former carries a direct read-across to Bund issuance and the latter does not. The council's projections frequently diverge from those of the government and the Bundesbank, and historically it is the convergence or persistence of that gap across institutions that has shaped the consensus, not any single body's number. The immediate follow-ons are the full report's assumptions on the fiscal multiplier and the reaction of official forecasters, plus any shift in the issuance outlook from the debt agency.