Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to deliver 25bp rate hikes in June and September 2026 (prev. saw hikes in April and June)
- Analysts expect energy prices to remain persistently high through 2026, significant pass-through into inflation is likely in coming months and ECB’s communication has remained largely hawkish on the path ahead.
Context
Goldman Sachs is now forecasting a shift in the ECB's rate hike schedule, pushing their expectations to June and September 2026, which indicates a more cautious approach compared to their previous April and June predictions. This adjustment suggests that the ECB remains sensitive to inflationary pressures, particularly from energy prices, and will adopt a hawkish stance to manage future growth and inflation dynamics. The market may react by recalibrating expectations for euro rates and potentially impacting the EUR's valuation against other currencies.
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