Goldman Sachs expects US data centre power demand to grow 38% in 2026 and 38% in 2027

Bank forecasts of this kind sit within a running research debate that has been repricing the US power complex since the data centre buildout theme took hold, and the incremental information is the trajectory shape rather than the direction: repeated upward revisions to load growth estimates have been the pattern, with each iteration feeding through to utility capex plans, independent power producer valuations and the natural gas complex via expectations for gas-fired generation as the bridging fuel. The transmission channels worth separating are the regulated utilities, where load growth flows through rate base and earnings only with a lag and subject to commission approval, versus the unregulated generation and equipment names, where the repricing has historically been faster and more volatile. Grid interconnection queues and turbine and transformer lead times have been the binding constraint in comparable buildout episodes, which is where forecast risk concentrates: demand projections of this scale depend on announced projects actually connecting, and past cycles have seen a meaningful share of proposed capacity never materialise. The follow-ons are utility integrated resource plan updates, hyperscaler capex guidance, and any revision in grid operator load forecasts, which have tended to be the tell for whether sell-side estimates are leading or lagging reality.