Goldman Sachs (GS) projects Anthropic (ANT) revenue of more than USD 600bln by 2030 (vs. USD 4.6bln in 2025), reports FT

• Expects revenue of about USD 52bln in 2026, USD 136bln in 2027 and USD 442bln in 2029.
• Goldman predicts Anthropic will not turn FCF positive until 2030, when it projects the company will generate USD 33.6bln
• Anthropic has committed to spend about USD 900bln on computing capacity over the coming years, according to filings

Long-dated revenue models for unlisted, pre-profit technology firms are a familiar late-cycle sell-side genre, and history treats them as narrative artefacts rather than forecast records: past episodes of this kind have tended to be revised around funding conditions and capacity economics rather than validated at the horizon printed. With no listed equity attached to the subject, the tradeable content sits elsewhere, in the counterparties and suppliers around it: the compute commitments cited are the binding, verifiable leg, and they feed directly into the order books of chip and infrastructure vendors, the capex lines of hyperscalers that back the company, and the credit and vendor-financing channels funding the buildout. The modelling detail worth noting is the gap between the revenue trajectory and the cash burn: a company projected to spend on capacity at a pace well ahead of free cash flow is structurally dependent on continued access to outside capital, and prior buildouts of this shape have repriced sharply when that access tightened. The distinction to draw is between the forecast itself, which is marketing-adjacent, and the committed spend, which is contractually real and now a measurable input to listed peers. Worth watching are the funding rounds and any circularity in how the compute is financed and booked, since those are where the strain has shown first in comparable cycles.