Gulf Keystone Petroleum CEO expects gross output in Iraqi Kurdistan's Shaikan oilfield to increase to over 90k BPD from about 45k BPD by 2030 if drilling commences next year

• Merger with Shamaran Petroleum to double Gulf Keystone's working interest production to 53k BPD of oil, up from 28k BPD.
• Hamrin oil field in Iraq estimated to have about 7bln bbls of oil in place, of which 10-15%, or 0.5-1bln bbls, is recoverable
• CEO expects there to be other opportunities in Iraq, which company will take on Merit

Kurdistan production targets have a long history of being conditional rather than bankable: the constraint has usually been export logistics, Baghdad-Erbil payment mechanics, security and fiscal terms before reservoir capability. Shaikan guidance of roughly doubling gross output is therefore best read as a drilling-and-evacuation statement, not a near-term supply signal; landlocked Kurdish barrels only become revenue when the northern route, offtake and receivables cycle are all functioning. The Shamaran combination fits the familiar pattern among small Kurdistan independents, where consolidation is used for scale, cost spread and negotiating leverage, while paper working-interest barrels can rise faster than marketed barrels. The distinction that matters is gross field output versus net entitlement and cash-netback barrels, since PSC take, arrears and transport/insurance can leave headline production ahead of shareholder cash flow. The tells are rig contracts and capex sanction rather than CEO ambition, any movement on export capacity and payment timing, integration terms and reserve or competent-person updates, and whether peer operators frame the same basin the same way. Equity reaction in comparable episodes has tended to gap on the headline then fade unless accompanied by export throughput and collected cash.