Hungarian CPI (Sep YY) 1.6% (Prev. 1.3%)

Hungarian inflation re-accelerating off a low base sits within a pattern seen across central European economies, where headline prints that troughed after the post-shock disinflation have tended to drift back up as base effects from energy and food fade. The NBH has in past cycles of this kind distinguished between a mechanical rebound in headline and any revival in underlying momentum, and it is the core and services components rather than the headline YY rate that have driven its reaction function when rates were in restrictive territory. For HUF, the transmission runs through the real rate differential: a higher print with a policy rate on hold raises ex-ante real yields, while a rising print that brings easing expectations forward works the other way, so the relevant read is how the print shifts the priced path rather than the level itself. The split worth watching is whether the acceleration is concentrated in administered and food prices, which the NBH has historically looked through, or broadens into domestically generated services, which it has not. Follow-ons are the core measure, any NBH commentary reframing its tolerance band, and whether regional peers print in the same direction, since the CEE inflation complex has tended to trade as a block in the swap market.