IEA OMR: cuts 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 1.1mln BPD (prev. 2.4mln BPD), total 2026 supply forecast 107.2mln BPD (prev. 108.6mln BPD). Middle East conflict is the largest oil supply disruption ever.

The IEA's significant downward revision of both global oil supply growth and total forecasts for 2026 indicates a tightening supply environment, primarily driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict. With supply growth expectations cut by more than 50%, this suggests potential upward pressure on prices, especially as demand forecasts also decline, albeit at a slower rate. The interplay of these factors could influence market sentiment and trading strategies, particularly for WTI and other oil contracts.