IEA OMR: cuts 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 1.1mln BPD (prev. 2.4mln BPD), total 2026 supply forecast 107.2mln BPD (prev. 108.6mln BPD). Middle East conflict is the largest oil supply disruption ever.
The IEA's significant downward revision of both global oil supply growth and total forecasts for 2026 indicates a tightening supply environment, primarily driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict.
A senior US administration official, on the Middle East conflict and President Trump's view, says "The Iranians f*cking around with the Strait makes him more dug in"
US President Trump was reportedly "ambiguous and noncommittal" during the G7 leaders call, Axios reports; with some participants thinking POTUS wants to end the war, while other attendees left with the opposite view
IEA OMR: cuts 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 1.1mln BPD (prev. 2.4mln BPD), total 2026 supply forecast 107.2mln BPD (prev. 108.6mln BPD). Middle East conflict is the largest oil supply disruption ever.
China reportedly expands BHP's (BHP AT) iron ore ban to new products, asking domestic steel mills not to take delivery from BHP's Portside Newman fines from next week
According to Lebanese newspaper citing diplomatic sources, Iran clarified that they defend itself against American and Israeli aggression and that it will not agree to a ceasefire that is not accompanied by clear guarantees, via N12 News reporter Lipkin
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Demand Forecasts
- 2026, total: 104.8mln BPD
- 2026, growth: 640k BPD (prev. 850k BPD)
Production
- OPEC+ production decreased by 210k BPD in February.
With supply growth expectations cut by more than 50%, this suggests potential upward pressure on prices, especially as demand forecasts also decline, albeit at a slower rate. The interplay of these factors could influence market sentiment and trading strategies, particularly for WTI and other oil contracts.
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