IEA OMR: world oil supply to fall by 3.9mln bpd in 2026 assuming Strait of Hormuz flows gradually resume from June (prev. forecast 1.5mln bpd fall); Sees total world oil supply 1.78mln bpd lower than demand in 2026 (vs. prev forecast 0.41mln bpd higher)
The IEA's revised forecast indicates a significant downward adjustment in world oil supply, projecting a decline of 3.9 million bpd in 2026 due to the ongoing war in the Middle East affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
PM will hold a limited security discussion tonight, Israeli journalist Stein reports
China and the US held candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges, CCTV reports
IEA OMR: world oil supply to fall by 3.9mln bpd in 2026 assuming Strait of Hormuz flows gradually resume from June (prev. forecast 1.5mln bpd fall); Sees total world oil supply 1.78mln bpd lower than demand in 2026 (vs. prev forecast 0.41mln bpd higher)
Nissan Motor (7201 JT) - FY25/26 (JPY): Net -533bln (prev. -671bln Y/Y), Operating Income 58bln (prev. 69.8bln Y/Y), Revenue 12tln (prev. 12.6tln Y/Y), does not plan FY26 dividends, sees positive auto FCF in H2; announces JPY 240bln impairment loss
[MARKET UPDATE] DXY tops its 100 DMA (98.45) as it makes its way to 98.50, with the 200 DMA (98.52) in close proximity
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DEMAND
- Sees world oil demand falling by 420k bpd in 2026 on Iran war (prev. forecast 80k bpd drop)
MIDDLE EAST / HORMUZ
- Sees total global supply loss from Hormuz closure at 12.8 million bpd since February.
- War in the Middle East is depleting global oil inventories at record pace, IEA says.
REFINING
- Global oil refinery runs fell by 1.6mln bpd across 2026 on attacks, lower crude availability, and export restrictions.
This contrasting shift from a previous expectation of a modest supply increase signals potential upward pressure on oil prices, as a noticeable supply-demand imbalance is anticipated with global oil demand also expected to fall substantially. Market participants should brace for likely volatility in energy markets as these developments unfold.
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