If major US combat operations resume on Iran, they're expected to include large-scale strikes on Iranian energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear targets, according to Axios citing sources [updated article]

The conditional framing matters more than the target list: sourced previews of strike packages have historically been as much signalling as planning, used to shape adversary behaviour and domestic opinion, and only a subset have converted into operations. The distinction to draw is between strikes confined to military and nuclear nodes and hits on energy infrastructure: the former tend to produce a geopolitical risk premium in crude that fades when supply is untouched, the latter threaten physical disruption through crude and product export capacity, regional freight and insurance costs, and any retaliation against tanker traffic or Gulf infrastructure. Past episodes of direct strikes on Iranian-linked targets have typically followed a sequence of sharp front-month bid, curve backwardation steepening, then partial retracement once flows proved intact; episodes that actually removed barrels repriced the whole curve and held. Source quality here is a known quantity insofar as such previews often surface as deliberate leaks, so confirmation bias risk runs both ways. The tells to follow are visible force positioning, diplomatic channels going quiet, tanker insurance rates, and any official confirmation or denial from the principals named. As a sourced report rather than an announced decision, this prices as a tail, not a base case.