IMF: Lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% (April: 3.1%). Raises 2027 global growth forecast to 3.4% (April: 3.2%).

Global Growth Forecasts

• U.S.: 2026: 2.3% (April: 2.3%) 2027: 2.2% (April: 2.1%)
• Euro Area: 2026: 0.9% (April: 1.1%) 2027: 1.2% (April: 1.2%)
• Japan: 2026: 0.6% (April: 0.7%) 2027: 0.7% (April: 0.6%)
• China: 2026: 4.6% (April: 4.4%) 2027: 4.1% (April: 4.0%)
• India: 2026: 6.4% (April: 6.5%) 2027: 6.7% (April: 6.5%)
• Emerging Market & Developing Economies: 2026: 3.8% (April: 3.9%) 2027: 4.5% (April: 4.2%)
• Middle East & Central Asia: 2026: 0.7% (April: 1.9%) 2027: 6.5% (April: 4.6%)

Inflation

• Little evidence of de-anchoring of inflation expectations thus far. 
• Disinflation trend seen since 2024 has stalled; energy prices are roughly 25% higher than before the Middle East war.
• 2026: 4.7% (April: 4.4%) 
• 2027: 3.9% (April: 3.7%)

World Trade 

• 2026: 3.5% (April: 2.8%)
• 2027: 4.3% (April: 3.8%)