IMF: Lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% (April: 3.1%). Raises 2027 global growth forecast to 3.4% (April: 3.2%).

Newsquawk Staff · 8 Jul 2026, 13:21 UTC

Global Growth Forecasts

U.S.: 2026: 2.3% (April: 2.3%) 2027: 2.2% (April: 2.1%)
Euro Area: 2026: 0.9% (April: 1.1%) 2027: 1.2% (April: 1.2%)
Japan: 2026: 0.6% (April: 0.7%) 2027: 0.7% (April: 0.6%)
China: 2026: 4.6% (April: 4.4%) 2027: 4.1% (April: 4.0%)
India: 2026: 6.4% (April: 6.5%) 2027: 6.7% (April: 6.5%)
Emerging Market & Developing Economies: 2026: 3.8% (April: 3.9%) 2027: 4.5% (April: 4.2%)
Middle East & Central Asia: 2026: 0.7% (April: 1.9%) 2027: 6.5% (April: 4.6%)

Inflation

Little evidence of de-anchoring of inflation expectations thus far.
Disinflation trend seen since 2024 has stalled; energy prices are roughly 25% higher than before the Middle East war.
2026: 4.7% (April: 4.4%)
2027: 3.9% (April: 3.7%)

World Trade

2026: 3.5% (April: 2.8%)
2027: 4.3% (April: 3.8%)

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 23 Oct, 10:15 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump says the US crushed Iran, and may want to do it a "little more".
Crude benchmarks firmer on ongoing tensions in the Middle East; recent bout of strength comes after the Houthis launched another missile towards Saudi interests.

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Fed’s Waller (voter) says more rate hikes are likely needed to tame inflation, but there is flexibility over the pace and hikes do not need to be consecutive.
DXY+0.1%
Japan's GPIF didn't discuss allocation at its September meeting, Bloomberg reports.
USD/JPY+0.1%
Japanese FX Official Mimura says they are closely watching to see if markets take the clear message they are giving at face value. Not satisfied with or reassured by recent JPY action.
USD/JPY−0.5%

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Global Growth Forecasts

Inflation

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