IMF says near term risks to economic activity and employment are broadly balanced in the US, though the outlook for global energy prices poses upside risks to inflation
- US growth projected to rise to 2.4% in 2026, fading tariff effects and lower oil prices should bring core PCE inflation back to 2% during H1'27.
Context
The IMF's balanced risk assessment for US economic activity suggests stability in the near term, yet global energy price uncertainty could exert upward pressure on inflation. This outlook indicates potential implications for monetary policy, as sustained inflation risks might influence the Fed's rate path beyond 2026, especially if growth remains strong.
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