In the past few hours, there has apparently been a change in the American position in favour of a pre-emptive strike on Iran, according to a Haaretz correspondent, citing White House sources

• White House sources explain the change mainly due to the great weight that President Trump gave to the assessments and intelligence that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth presented to him upon his return from the meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Reports of a shift in Washington toward a pre-emptive strike belong to the class of headline that first prices tail risk rather than supply loss, so the established pattern is an immediate premium in crude prompt spreads and upside call skew, firmer gold and yen, softer equity futures, then partial fade if officials qualify the story or no physical disruption follows. The key distinction is between a change in reported position and a change in operational posture: the former is reversible and headline-driven, the latter shows up in force movements, air and missile defense, tanker routing, war-risk insurance and advisories around Hormuz and the Gulf. The named channel matters: Trump has historically alternated pressure and deal-seeking, Netanyahu has long favored a harder line on Iran, and a defense secretary's intelligence briefing is the sort of catalyst that can move rhetoric before it moves barrels. Single-correspondent sourcing from Israeli media citing White House officials is enough to trigger stops and short covering, but comparable episodes have tended to whipsaw until matched by Pentagon, State Department or Israeli confirmation, congressional notification signals, or visible carrier and airlift activity. The transmission to oil runs less through demand than through the probability assigned to retaliation against infrastructure, shipping or regional allies, which is why Brent-Dubai, WTI timespreads, refining margins and freight can react differently from flat price. The next tells are denial or confirmation language, evacuation or posture changes at regional bases, any move in Iranian proxy readiness, and whether insurers and shipowners begin pricing the route as hostile rather than merely volatile.