Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi says Iran presented a proposal to US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal, while it calls for US to meet certain conditions within 7 days, according to CNN

The mechanism that matters for markets is freight and insurance: tanker rates, war-risk premia and the prompt structure of the crude curve have historically been the first to price Hormuz risk, and the first to unwind it when talks gain traction, well ahead of any change in physical flows. The deadline framing, conditions to be met within a set window, is a familiar negotiating device and has cut both ways in comparable episodes: it has served as a forcing mechanism toward a deal and as a pretext for escalation when the window lapses without response. The distinction worth drawing is between a proposal to reopen transit, which addresses the immediate supply risk, and a proposal to restart final-deal negotiations, which is a longer and less certain track; the crude market has typically rewarded the former more durably than the latter. Worth watching is whether Washington acknowledges receipt of the proposal, whether the mediators confirm the account, and whether the deadline is met with a counter or with silence, since in past cycles silence inside the stated window has been the tell for deterioration.