Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi told NBC News on Sunday that "Iran ‘fully prepared’ for war to resume but diplomacy not over yet"

Statements of this kind from Iranian foreign ministers have been a recurring feature of prior escalation cycles, and the established pattern is that the risk premium in crude responds less to the rhetoric itself than to whether it is paired with concrete action: mobilisation, proxy activity, or disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of seaborne Gulf crude transits. The 'fully prepared for war, diplomacy not over' formulation is a standard deterrent posture and has historically been more often a negotiating signal than a prelude, which is why comparable episodes have tended to see an initial bid in WTI and Brent fade unless shipping, insurance rates, or tanker traffic actually change. The actors matter here: Araghchi has been Tehran's principal diplomatic channel, so the line carrying the threat is the same one keeping the talks open, which softens the read relative to similar language from military or IRGC figures. The distinction worth drawing is between headline risk, which moves front-month spreads and call skew briefly, and supply risk, which would show up first in freight rates, war-risk premia, and Gulf loading schedules. The follow-ons are any scheduling or collapse of talks, movement of naval assets, and whether OPEC producers with spare capacity signal a response, since that spare capacity has historically capped how long geopolitical premia persist.