Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei dismissed UAE claims that Iran launched missiles

A formal denial of this kind is standard sequencing in Gulf escalation episodes: allegation, rebuttal, then a contest over attribution in which independent verification, typically radar tracks, debris analysis, or third-party intelligence assessments, becomes the next market-relevant input. The channel that matters is crude and shipping: whether the claim survives scrutiny determines if risk premia extend into freight rates, war-risk insurance, and Strait of Hormuz transit expectations, or fade as another round of rhetorical exchange. Iran's foreign ministry has a long record of denying involvement in strikes later attributed to it or its proxies, so the denial itself carries limited informational weight; the tell is whether the UAE produces evidence, whether Gulf states coordinate a response, and whether Washington's attribution language follows. Episodes of this pattern have tended to see crude's geopolitical premium decay quickly absent physical disruption, and hold only where tanker traffic or infrastructure is actually affected. Worth observing are any statement from Gulf air defence or maritime authorities, tanker routing behaviour, and whether the incident recurs as a pattern rather than a single claim.