Iran has reportedly managed to export some LPG and jet fuel since July, despite the blockade; Iran is exploring ways to get other shipments out also

Episodes in which sanctioned or blockaded producers find export channels are familiar, and the recurring question is scale rather than existence: leakage at the margins of an embargo has historically had little price effect, while sustained, growing volumes quietly add to effective supply and erode the discount or disruption premium built into crude and product markets. The detail that matters here is the product mix: LPG and jet fuel are specific, thin regional markets where incremental cargoes move spot differentials and crack spreads well before they register in headline crude balances, whereas crude leakage would transmit through different channels. The phrasing that other shipments are being explored suggests intent to expand, which historically follows a sequence of trial cargoes, re-flagging, ship-to-ship transfer and blended origin documentation, a pattern seen in prior sanctions-evasion episodes. The tells to watch are tanker-tracking flows out of Iranian ports, Asian import data for unaccounted arrivals, and any enforcement response, since the history of such episodes is that volumes grow until enforcement tightens and the premium partially rebuilds. As a report rather than confirmed trade data, the read is that Iranian supply risk is two-sided: the blockade removes volumes, but evasion adds some back, and the balance between the two is what reprices.