Iran Major General Rezai says they have stated their conditions, but US President Trump is incapable of making decisions, reports Irib

The market-relevant distinction in past episodes has been between verbal defiance, which tends to fade from crude and gold pricing within sessions, and any accompanying change in force posture, shipping behaviour around key waterways, or actual kinetic contact, which is what has durably moved energy risk premia. The Caucasus framing is secondary; the core read is continued rejection of US involvement on terms Tehran has already set, which closes off near-term diplomatic progress rather than opening a new front. What has mattered in comparable cycles is the follow-on: whether the rhetoric is matched by proxy activity, tanker or insurance disruption, or a shift in sanctions enforcement, and whether Washington responds in kind or lets it pass. Absent any of those, the established pattern is a limited and short-lived bid in crude and haven assets. State-media sourcing also warrants the usual discount, as such broadcasts have historically overstated resolve ahead of negotiations rather than replaced them.