Iran reportedly threatens to hit gulf states if US launches new strikes, according to Reuters

Threats from Tehran against Gulf energy infrastructure have a long established template: the transmission channel is crude, and specifically the risk premium applied to barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of seaborne Gulf exports passes. In past episodes of this kind, the front of the crude curve has tended to reprice first, with prompt spreads firming faster than flat price, while freight rates and tanker insurance costs for Gulf loadings have been the more sensitive real-world tell of how seriously shippers take the rhetoric. The distinction worth drawing is between threats as deterrent signalling ahead of any US action and threats made once strikes are underway; the former has historically faded without follow-through, the latter has sustained a premium until shipping disruption is either confirmed or ruled out. Retaliation scenarios also split by target: strikes on US assets in the region carry a different escalation profile than attacks on neighbouring states' export facilities, which pull Riyadh and Abu Dhabi directly into the conflict. The follow-ons to watch are force posture in the region, any guidance from Gulf producers on export continuity, and whether Iranian officials walk the language back, as they have on previous occasions. As reported rhetoric rather than an act, this sits at the lower end of the escalation ladder.