Iran's Rezaei says Trump claims to destroy our forces every day, but not a single American tanker has yet passed through the Strait of Hormuz, via SNN

Rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz has a long pedigree and the historical read is that verbal exchanges alone, absent any physical interference with shipping, have tended to produce fleeting crude risk premia that fade once tanker traffic and insurance rates confirm business as usual. The channel that matters is not the words but the freight and war-risk insurance market: in past flare-ups the first reliable tell of genuine escalation has been rising tanker rates and premiums on Gulf loadings, not official statements. The distinction worth drawing is between threats to close the strait, which Iran has historically used as leverage without executing given its own export dependence, and actual harassment or seizure of vessels, which has on previous occasions lifted WTI by a visible margin and prompted naval escort responses. The actor here is a military figure rather than the foreign ministry, which in prior episodes has signalled posturing for domestic consumption rather than policy. What is worth watching next is tanker tracking data through the strait, any change in US naval posture in the Gulf, and whether the rhetoric is matched by moves in the physical crude market rather than just the headline tape.