Iran warned Hezbollah to prepare for war as it expects US strikes soon, diplomats tell Jerusalem Post

Warnings of imminent US strikes on Iran, relayed through diplomatic sourcing to a regional paper, fit a recurring pre-escalation pattern in which the crude market prices a geopolitical premium through the front of the WTI and Brent curves well before any kinetic event, and has historically faded it just as quickly when the strike either fails to materialise or proves contained. The transmission channel that matters is not Iranian production itself but the tail risks around it: the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of seaborne crude passes, and the security of Gulf export infrastructure, where even a threatened disruption lifts freight rates, insurance premia and timespreads ahead of flat price. The activation of Hezbollah as a proxy is the established escalation tell in past Iran-Israel-US standoffs; proxy readiness rhetoric has tended to precede either deterrence talks or a limited exchange, with full regional conflict the exception rather than the rule. Worth noting is the sourcing: unattributed diplomats speaking to an Israeli outlet often reflects signalling intent as much as intelligence, and similar reports in prior episodes have leaked ahead of both actual strikes and negotiated de-escalation. Follow-ons are any movement in US force posture in the region, Iranian official response, and whether options skew and prompt spreads in crude confirm the headline risk or dismiss it.