Iranian channels are said to report that the IRGC fired anti ship ballistic missile towards the Strait of Hormuz, according to Open Source Intel but noted needs further confirmation - Unconfirmed

Reports of IRGC missile activity toward the Strait of Hormuz sit in a well-established category: the strait carries a substantial share of seaborne crude, and threats to it have historically transmitted to markets through tanker insurance premia, freight rates, and any disruption to vessel traffic before any physical supply loss occurs. Anti-ship ballistic missile use would represent an escalation in method compared with the harassment, seizures, and mine incidents that have been the usual pattern there, which is precisely why the unconfirmed tag matters. In past episodes of this kind, first reports via open-source channels have frequently been revised, attributed to exercises, or walked back, and markets have tended to fade the initial oil and shipping risk bid when confirmation fails to arrive. The distinction worth drawing is between a launch and a strike: the former is a signal, the latter closes transit and triggers insurance withdrawal and naval escort responses. The tells are confirmation from official or maritime security sources, any statement from Tehran, tanker transponder behaviour in the strait, and whether war-risk premia reprice. Until confirmation, this is headline-flow risk, not supply risk.