Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says Iran is determined to defend its interests and national security in the Strait of Hormuz, ILNA reports

The established pattern is that markets distinguish sharply between words and deeds: verbal commitments to defend interests tend to fade, while any move against actual shipping, seizures, harassment of tankers, or mining activity, is what has durably repriced the geopolitical premium in WTI and Brent. The transmission channel when escalation does occur runs through freight rates, war-risk insurance premia, and prompt spreads rather than outright length alone, with the front of the curve typically outperforming on supply-disruption fear. A meaningful share of global seaborne crude and LNG transits the strait, and Qatar's gas exports share the route, which is why the tail risk is taken seriously even when the base case is status quo. Worth noting is the actor: statements from the foreign ministry carry a different weight than those from the IRGC, which controls the naval forces that would execute any interdiction. The follow-ons that have mattered in past episodes are tanker traffic data, insurance quotes, and whether rhetoric is matched by military posturing or diplomatic back-channels.