Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says Tehran has yet to receive a response from Saudi Arabia or Yemen's Houthis regarding its mediation initiative, while warning against trusting the US in negotiations

• All possibilities are on the table, including a new war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran

Rhetoric of this kind from Iranian officials is a recurring feature of Gulf tension cycles, and the established pattern is that crude prices respond to the transmission channel rather than the language: threats to shipping through Hormuz, attacks on regional energy infrastructure, or direct US-Iran kinetic exchange carry a risk premium, while verbal escalation alone has tended to fade within sessions. The mediation framing matters here: episodes where back-channel diplomacy is reported as stalled or unanswered have historically been the phases in which the risk premium builds, since the market prices the absence of an off-ramp rather than any single statement. The reference to Saudi Arabia and the Houthis signals the conflict perimeter remains the wider proxy network, which in past episodes has been the route by which disruption reaches tanker traffic and insurance rates rather than Iranian crude output directly. The distinction worth drawing is between headline risk and physical risk: only the latter, freight, insurance, loading schedules, has historically sustained a move in WTI beyond the initial spike. The follow-ons are any response from Riyadh or the Houthis, movement in Gulf shipping rates and war-risk premia, and whether US or Israeli officials echo the escalation. As it stands this is a no-response headline, not an event.