Iranian officials indicated they received an official US response to its latest offer on ending the war, although the officials didn't indicate what the response contained and if it was a rejection, according to NYP

In past episodes of this sort, the oil and shipping reaction has been asymmetric by design, with crude pricing a risk premium on any hint of rejection faster than it unwinds on acceptance, and the concrete channels being front-month spreads, tanker freight and insurance rates rather than the flat price alone. The tell that separates noise from substance is whether the unnamed-officials story is followed by confirmation from either capital or by on-the-record comment; single-source, single-outlet reports of this form have historically faded without follow-through within a session or two. Worth noting is what the market does on the absence of detail itself: a refusal to characterise the response tends to be read as neither escalation nor breakthrough, leaving positioning to lean on the prior trend. The follow-ons are the usual ones, any denial or confirmation from US or Iranian officials, movement in Gulf shipping traffic, and whether the story propagates to primary wires. Confidence in the read is tempered by the thin sourcing.