Iranian Security Council Secretary Rezaei says a new escalation from the US could open a 2nd front alongside the Strait of Hormuz, in Bab El-Mandeb

The distinction that matters for crude pricing is between Hormuz, a chokepoint whose closure has never actually been tested and where threats are recurrent and cheap, and Bab el-Mandeb, where disruption has already occurred in practice via proxy action and has measurably rerouted tanker traffic around the Cape, tightening tonnage and lifting freight and insurance costs before any cargo is lost. The transmission channel runs first through war-risk premia, freight rates and re-routing rather than through physical supply loss; Brent typically carries the risk premium while actual barrels keep moving unless a strait is physically interdicted. Statements from this particular official carry weight as signalling rather than decision: operational authority sits elsewhere in the Iranian chain, and past episodes of similar rhetoric have tended to fade without action when not followed by deployments or proxy attacks. The tells worth watching are whether Houthi or allied maritime activity actually escalates, any change in tanker routing or insurance quotes in the Red Sea corridor, and whether the US response is rhetorical or kinetic. As verbal escalation without a follow-on event, the headline fits the category of premium-sustaining noise rather than a supply event.