Iran's army launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, according to Fars News Agency

In past episodes of this kind the first-order transmission has run through the crude complex: a geopolitical risk premium added to the front of the WTI and Brent curves, with the size of the premium historically governed by whether flows through the Strait of Hormuz are credibly threatened rather than by the strike itself. The distinction that has mattered in comparable sequences is between a one-off symbolic attack, where the premium has tended to fade within sessions as no supply is actually lost, and an exchange that draws a direct US military response and raises the probability of disruption to Gulf loadings, freight, and war-risk insurance. Attribution and sourcing also warrant caution: Fars is state-aligned and initial claims in active hostilities have often been revised, denied, or shown to be intercepted. The follow-ons that have historically determined whether the move extends are confirmation from US or Bahraini authorities, evidence of casualties or damage, any Iranian signalling around Hormuz or shipping, and the US posture on retaliation versus containment. Spillover beyond energy, into Gulf sovereign spreads, gold, and haven FX, has typically tracked the crude premium rather than led it.