Iran's Major General Rezaei says If diplomacy can create this understanding, we prefer diplomacy; but warns that "Continuing the current situation will have strategic consequences; Including that energy markets will not calm down for the next 3 years"

Iran's Major General Rezaei says If diplomacy can create this understanding, we prefer diplomacy; but warns that "Continuing the current situation will have strategic consequences; Including that energy markets will not calm down for the next 3 years"

Iranian military figures have a long record of pairing diplomatic overtures with explicit references to energy supply, and the pattern in past episodes is that the threat functions as leverage on negotiations rather than as a statement of intent: the multi-year horizon attached to the warning reads as positioning for talks, not as a near-term disruption claim. The distinction worth drawing is between rhetoric that keeps a risk premium embedded in crude and rhetoric that precedes action; Iranian commentary of this kind has historically moved the front of the oil curve only when accompanied by tangible events in and around the Gulf, such as tanker seizures, shipping incidents, or attacks on infrastructure, while words alone have tended to fade within sessions. The transmission channel, when episodes of this kind do escalate, runs through freight and war-risk insurance rates and through supply expectations around chokepoints, widening the prompt versus deferred spread rather than lifting the curve uniformly. The tell is whether shipping behaviour, insurance pricing, or regional military posture shifts in line with the language; absent that, precedent says the premium bleeds back out. Worth noting is who is speaking: a senior military figure rather than the oil ministry or the negotiating team, which in prior cycles has signalled pressure-building rather than a change in supply policy. Follow-ons are the response from counterparties in any active diplomatic track and any parallel commentary from other Gulf producers on spare capacity and continuity of flows.