Iran's Press TV notes reports of Iran firing missiles towards US vessels in Strait of Hormuz

State media reports of missile fire at US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz sit at the top of the escalation ladder for Gulf risk, and the first filter is attribution: Press TV is an Iranian state outlet carrying 'reports' rather than official confirmation, a sourcing pattern that in past episodes has ranged from accurate early warning to unverified or later-retracted claims. The established sequence in comparable incidents has been crude and refined products gapping on the headline, with freight rates and war-risk insurance premia for Gulf transits re-pricing ahead of any confirmed supply loss, since the channel is the threat to transit through the chokepoint rather than physical disruption itself. The tell that has historically separated sustained moves from fades is corroboration: US military statements, vessel tracking showing route diversions or slowdowns, and any move to close or escort traffic through the strait. Prior form on both sides matters, as Tehran has a record of signalling around Hormuz during periods of confrontation without following through on closure, while direct fire on US naval assets crosses a threshold that has previously drawn a military response and extended the risk premium rather than letting it decay. Worth watching are tanker fixtures and insurance quotes as the cleanest real-time gauge, plus any retaliation announcement, which has tended to determine whether the move in the energy complex holds or retraces.