Iraqi Oil Minister says negotiations with Iran are underway regarding facilitating the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz

• Hope to reach important agreements in the coming days that will help protect oil tankers and facilitate their passage

Hormuz is the chokepoint through which a large share of seaborne Gulf crude and LNG transits, and headlines about securing tanker passage have historically been the tell that flows, or the perceived risk to flows, are under strain. Episodes of this kind have tended to follow a recognisable sequence: threats or harassment of shipping, a rise in war risk insurance premia and freight rates on Gulf loadings, then diplomatic efforts of exactly this sort to keep the strait open. Iraqi involvement as an intermediary is consistent with past form; Baghdad has previously served as a channel between Tehran and outside parties, and its own crude exports move through Gulf terminals, giving it a direct stake in keeping the waterway clear. The operative question is whether negotiations of this kind produce a verifiable de-escalation or merely rhetorical reassurance: in comparable episodes the crude risk premium has only durably unwound once tanker traffic and insurance pricing normalised, not on ministerial statements alone. Worth noting the split between a security guarantee, which compresses the premium, and a transit arrangement covering only certain flags, which leaves it partly in place. The follow-ons are the shipping and insurance market data, any confirmation from Tehran, and whether tanker fixture rates out of the Gulf begin to ease.