Iraq’s oil exports averaged 2.65mln BPD in September, including 250k BPD shipped via Turkey’s Ceyhan port, according to the Oil Ministry spokesperson

Iraq has a long track record of exceeding its quota, so prints of this kind are read against its stated target and against whether compensation-cut commitments are being honoured in practice. The Ceyhan line item carries its own significance: northern exports through the Turkish pipeline were suspended for an extended period in past years amid the dispute between Baghdad, Erbil and Ankara, and resumption has proceeded in fits and starts, so the share running through that route is watched as a gauge of how durable the restart is and how much Kurdish output is reaching the market through official channels. The transmission is direct to the physical sour crude complex: Iraqi barrels feed Mediterranean and Asian refiners, and shifts in Basra and Ceyhan loadings move differentials against dated benchmarks rather than the flat price in isolation. Follow-ons are the OPEC secondary-source assessment, any quota or compensation-plan commentary from Baghdad, and loadings data for the following month to test whether the level is a trend or a one-off.