Iraq's PM says they will not allow their territory to be used as a launching pad for any aggression against neighbouring countries

Statements of this kind from Baghdad have appeared repeatedly in past periods of regional escalation, when Iraq has sought to signal neutrality between its neighbour and Western or Gulf actors. The track record is instructive: such pledges have rarely been fully enforceable on the ground, since the launch activity in question typically runs through militia networks that sit partly outside the state's chain of command, and markets have learned to price the statement as intent rather than capability. The operative distinction is between the government's formal position and the behaviour of armed groups aligned with neighbouring interests; episodes have tended to escalate through the latter channel regardless of official pledges. For oil, the transmission channel is less about rhetoric than about whether Iraqi export infrastructure and southern fields are drawn into any retaliation cycle, since supply from that corridor has historically been treated as hostage to geography rather than to diplomacy. Worth noting is whether the statement is reciprocated or contradicted by the parties it implicitly addresses, and whether any militia response undercuts the PM's framing. As headline risk it is de-escalatory in tone but carries limited weight without corroborating action.