IRGC confirms it used drones and ballistic missiles in attacks on two US bases in Jordan, adds aggression will not solve the enemy's inability to weaken our control over the Strait of Hormuz

Confirmed direct strikes by the IRGC on US bases mark a step up from the more common pattern of deniable proxy attacks, and statements pairing such confirmation with explicit reference to the Strait of Hormuz follow a familiar Iranian playbook: linking retaliation to the one channel where Tehran holds structural leverage. A material share of global seaborne crude transits the strait, and in past episodes of direct Iran-US confrontation the crude market's first move has been to price a geopolitical risk premium into the front of the oil curve, with freight rates and war-risk insurance on Gulf transits repricing alongside. The key distinction historically has been between strikes that stop short of disrupting shipping, where premia have tended to fade once retaliation cycles ran their course, and actual interference with tanker traffic, which shifts the move from sentiment to physical supply. Worth noting that the claim of control over the strait is rhetorical framing that has accompanied prior escalations without closure ever being attempted, since closing it would cut off Iran's own exports. The follow-ons are the US response, any move on tanker traffic or insurance, and whether Gulf producers signal rerouting via pipelines that bypass the strait.