IRGC says it targeted US bases in Erbil, Iraq with missiles and drones

Direct attribution has historically marked a step up the escalation ladder, since it removes deniability and invites a response aimed at Iran itself rather than at proxies, which is the sequence that has tended to precede direct state-on-state exchanges. Whether this proves to be retaliation for a specific prior strike or part of a broader regional confrontation will shape how it is priced: contained one-off responses have tended to fade within sessions, while sequences of claimed direct attacks have sustained risk premia. The channels are established: crude via supply-risk premia on Gulf production and shipping, the bid in gold and the front of the Treasury curve, and the widening of regional credit spreads. The follow-ons that matter are confirmation of casualties or damage from the US side, the character of any American response, and whether the pattern repeats. Erbil sits in the Kurdish region, a location that has previously served as a pressure point precisely because US assets there are exposed.