IRGC spokesman says does not have the capacity to create a new conflict, Tasnim reports

• Most of America's bases in the region have been deactivated. Its forces are worn out and exhausted and are hundreds of kilometers away from Iran.
• Technically and militarily, America does not have the capacity to create a new conflict, but since the elections are near, they may want to make achievements. We do not ignore the possibilities and are prepared to respond, and this time our response will be much more severe.
• Even if America's action is limited, the world will face a serious energy crisis.

IRGC messaging of this kind follows a familiar pattern: rhetorical escalation paired with a stated reluctance to initiate conflict, which historically has been aimed at deterrence rather than signalling imminent action. The framing cuts both ways for crude, since the claim that even a limited strike would trigger a serious energy crisis invokes the Strait of Hormuz premium, the channel through which past Gulf tension episodes have added a risk bid to WTI and Brent that has tended to fade once no actual disruption to tanker traffic or loadings materialised. The election-cycle reference is notable: Iranian officials have previously treated adversary electoral calendars as windows of heightened provocation risk, which keeps the tail risk priced even when the base case is restraint. The distinction that matters for positioning is between rhetoric, proxy activity, and direct state-on-state engagement; the first has rarely sustained a move, the latter two have. The tells in comparable episodes have been tanker insurance rates, freight, and any change in export volumes rather than the headlines themselves. Follow-ons to monitor are whether the comments draw a response from Washington or allied Gulf states and whether regional proxy theatres show any shift in tempo.