IRGC spokesperson says severe punishment awaits the aggressors, US will regret its new attacks

The distinction that has mattered in past episodes is between declaratory signalling, which tends to produce a short-lived risk premium in crude and gold that retraces within sessions, and a verifiable kinetic follow-through, which is what durably reprices Gulf supply risk through freight, insurance and the front of the oil curve. The actor matters: IRGC statements carry more operational weight than general political commentary, but the institution's track record includes long gaps between threat and action, and action calibrated to preserve deniability or avoid full confrontation. The established sequence to watch is whether proxies or direct forces move first, whether shipping through the strait is touched, and whether the opposing side characterises its own next step as concluded or ongoing. The near-term tells are any movement in war-risk premia and tanker rates, official US force posture changes, and whether back-channel de-escalation language appears from either capital. As a headline without a confirmed event attached, this sits in the rhetoric bucket until evidence says otherwise.