IRNA reports several explosions were heard in Iraq's Erbil province

Reports of explosions in Erbil, carried first by Iranian state media, fit a recurring pattern in which strikes on Kurdish northern Iraq have been attributed to Iranian or Iran-aligned actors targeting what Tehran describes as Israeli-linked or opposition sites, and on other occasions to Turkish operations against Kurdish militant positions. The source matters here: initial reporting via state media in such episodes has historically carried a framing purpose, and confirmation from independent or local channels has typically been the first tell. In comparable past incidents the market transmission has run through crude, with the size and durability of the move depending on whether the event reads as contained cross-border messaging or as a step toward wider regional escalation; single-location strikes with no follow-through have tended to fade within the session. The relevant distinctions are the claimed target, any attribution or denial from Tehran, Baghdad, or Washington, and whether US or coalition assets in the province are involved, since Erbil hosts a US troop presence and strikes near it have previously raised the escalation stakes more than the headline alone implies. Worth noting is whether oil infrastructure, shipping, or regional airspace is affected; absent that, the established pattern is a brief risk premium that retraces unless the incident broadens.