Israeli airstrikes hit several areas in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera

The operative distinction traders have historically drawn is between tit-for-tat exchanges confined to the border zone, which tend to fade within sessions, and anything that draws in a state-level sponsor or widens toward energy infrastructure or shipping lanes, which is when the crude and freight premium has proved durable. The dollar has typically caught the first bid in these episodes via safe-haven flow rather than any rate channel, with the yen's response governed by how far broader risk appetite deteriorates. The proximate tells are whether the exchange generates a retaliation cycle, whether diplomatic channels open in parallel, and whether any party signals intent to expand the target set beyond the border strip. As a headline of recurring character in this theatre, the base case from precedent is short-lived flow absent a change in scope; what reprices durably is escalation evidence, not the strike itself.