Israeli military will enter a new phase of fighting in southern Lebanon in the coming days, Israeli Channel 12 reports cited by Sky News Arabia

The sourcing matters here, since it is a domestic media report rather than an official military statement, and on previous occasions such pre-briefings have served to prepare the ground domestically and signal intent to counterparties ahead of actual movement on the ground. The established market sequence in comparable episodes has been a first-order bid in crude and gold and softness in regional risk, with the duration of the move historically determined by whether the escalation draws in a direct Iranian response or remains contained to the Israel-Hezbollah axis; the contained case has tended to fade within sessions, the broadened case has not. The distinction worth drawing is between a ground-phase extension within the existing line of contact and any crossing of thresholds that would implicate shipping, energy infrastructure, or a wider actor set, since freight and insurance costs are the channel through which Lebanon-specific fighting has transmitted beyond the region. Tells that have mattered in past rounds are the posture of the other side, the state of any standing ceasefire monitoring mechanism, and whether diplomatic channels reopen within days. As a media-reported intention rather than an executed operation, the signal is directional pending confirmation.