Israeli PM Netanyahu says "We will defeat the regime in Iran - it will fall. All of our systems are working to overthrow the regime."

• If Iran chooses to attack us, they know it will be one of their last decisions

Explicit regime-change language from an Israeli leader sits at the hawkish end of the escalation ladder, and past episodes of this kind have tended to be read less as operational intent than as negotiating and deterrence signalling, with the market's job being to price the tail risk of miscalculation rather than the stated objective itself. The established transmission channel in Israel-Iran flare-ups runs through crude, where the risk premium attaches to supply disruption scenarios involving Gulf export infrastructure and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with freight and insurance costs typically moving before outright supply is lost. Gold and the yen have historically been the preferred havens in such episodes, though the dollar has often absorbed the safe-haven bid as well, leaving the classic risk map less clean than in other geopolitical shocks. The distinction worth drawing is between rhetorical escalation, which has tended to fade from pricing within sessions when no kinetic follow-through materialises, and action against Iranian leadership or nuclear facilities, which has produced more durable repricing. The tells are any Iranian response, movement in tanker rates and regional airspace closures, and whether allied capitals echo or distance themselves from the regime-change framing.