Japanese households expect prices to rise by average 11.8% a year from now, according to a BoJ survey

This is the Bank of Japan's quarterly household opinion survey, in which consumers are asked what change in prices they expect a year ahead. Japanese households have persistently reported expectations far above actual inflation, partly because the survey asks about 'prices' loosely defined and respondents lean on salient items such as food and energy; the level has therefore never mapped cleanly onto realised CPI, and the BoJ itself treats it as one input among several rather than a policy trigger. The distinction that matters for rates pricing is between this survey and the measures the BoJ cites in its own communication, namely business-side expectations in the Tankan and medium-term gauges, which have historically carried more weight in the normalisation debate. Where prints of this kind have gained traction is when they corroborate a broader pattern of wage settlements and services inflation, feeding the BoJ's argument that a durable demand-driven cycle is in place. The follow-ons are the next Tankan, the BoJ's own outlook report, and any commentary from board members linking household expectations to the timing of further adjustment of the policy rate.