Japanese Machinery Orders (Jul MM) -3.7% vs. Exp. -2.8% (Prev. 9.7%)

The series is watched as a leading gauge of corporate capex intentions six to nine months out, and the split that matters is private-sector core orders excluding ships and power utilities, which strips out the lumpy orders that drive most of the noise. A pullback after a strong prior month is the familiar give-back pattern rather than a clean signal of deceleration; the established read is that sharp month-on-month gains are usually followed by partial retracement. The transmission runs through the yen and through Japanese machinery and capital-goods names, with spillover to the metals and mining complex only indirect, via the capex-demand chain for industrial commodities. What follows on is the quarterly BSI and Tankan capex intentions, plus any revision to the official assessment, which have historically determined whether a soft print feeds into BOJ deliberations or is treated as volatility.