Japanese PM Takaichi says the government has no predetermined plans on whether to compile a supplementary budget; A robust economy can boost market confidence in the JPY

Supplementary budgets are a recurring feature of the Japanese fiscal calendar, typically compiled later in the year once the shape of the economy and tax revenues is clearer, so a new premier declining to pre-commit is standard holding language rather than a signal in itself. The market-relevant track record here is Takaichi's: she is identified with the fiscal expansionist wing of her party, and her ascent has been associated in past trading with steeper pressure at the super-long end of the JGB curve on issuance expectations and with a softer yen on the perceived political constraint on the central bank. Comments linking a robust economy to yen confidence fit the established pattern of officials talking the currency up when it is weak, jawboning that has historically had limited durability absent actual intervention or a policy shift. The transmission channels to separate are JGB supply expectations, which load on the long and super-long tenors, versus the yen, where verbal support tends to fade unless backed by action. What is worth watching is the coalition arithmetic that typically determines the eventual size of any package, the first cabinet-level fiscal decisions, and any adjustment to the issuance calendar, since the direction of travel under this leadership has pointed toward more spending rather than less.