Japanese PM Takaichi says will work to keep JGB sales around FY25's JPY 40tln level

New Japanese premiers have historically faced an early test on fiscal credibility, and comments on issuance caps are the standard instrument for reassuring the long end before a full budget framework exists. Holding gross sales flat rather than expanding them speaks to the supply side of the curve, which matters most for super-long tenors where domestic demand is thinnest; the distinction worth drawing is between gross issuance, which this addresses, and net supply after BoJ purchase tapering, which is the harder constraint and sits with the central bank's reduction schedule rather than the ministry's calendar. Takaichi enters office with a prior reputation for fiscal expansionism and pressure on the BoJ, so reassurance of this kind runs against her perceived form and is the reason it is being offered at all. The usual sequence in such episodes is a verbal commitment first, then the proof points: the initial budget draft, the actual issuance plan, and any supplementary budgets that would breach the stated level. The tells are whether the MoF's formal issuance plan matches the rhetoric and how the BoJ's purchase taper evolves, since flat sales alongside shrinking central bank absorption still implies rising net supply to the private market.