Japan's Coast Guard says projectile believed to be a North Korean ballistic missile has already fallen

North Korean ballistic launches are a recurring fixture of the calendar and past episodes have followed a well-worn sequence: the launch itself, confirmation from Japanese and South Korean authorities, and then the detail that determines significance, namely trajectory, apogee and splashdown zone. The salient distinction in these events is between short-range tests that fall into the Sea of Japan and intermediate or intercontinental trajectories that overfly Japan, which have historically been the ones to trigger J-alerts, emergency responses and a more durable risk-off bid in yen and JGBs. Fragmentary, same-cycle reports of this kind tend to fade quickly once splashdown outside territorial or economic zones is confirmed, and the pattern across prior launches has been for any FX and equity knee-jerk to retrace within the session absent a violation of Japanese airspace or territorial waters. What carries weight next is the flight data from Seoul and Tokyo, whether Pyongyang frames the test alongside a diplomatic standoff, and any follow-up salvos, since clustered launches have tended to signal escalation more reliably than a single test. As a headline, the already-fallen qualifier places this at the routine end of the spectrum.